Political lines of Raijor Dal and AJP have lessened BJP’s worries of a grand alliance of anti-CAA parties in Assam

The political line of the new regional party in Assam- Raijor Dal has lessened the worry of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led ruling coalition of emergence of a united and formidable opposition. The new party floated by the Krishak Mukti Sangram Samiti (KMSS) and it allied organisations has set its goal of resisting the resurgence of the two major opposition parties in the state- Congress and the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) apart from the goal of ‘defeating the BJP-Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangha (RSS)’ in 2021 assembly polls.

The Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), another new regional party floated earlier by the All Assam Students’ Union (AASU) and the Asom Jatiyatabadi Yuba Chatra Parishad (AJYCP) has also adopted the same political line of opposing both the BJP and the Congress-AIUDF combine. Despite the same political line, it remains to be seen if the two new parties would enter into any electoral alliance or any tacit understanding. The KMSS was pushing for a single regional party under one flag and one political symbol but the AJP or the AASU-AJYCP showed no interest in the proposal.

In 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the KMSS backed BJP candidates in six constituencies including Dibrugarh Lok Sabha constituency from where Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal contested and appealed to the electors to defeat the Congress. The organisation backed two AIUDF candidates including the AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal in Dhubri Lok Sabha constituency, one candidate each of Communist Party of India (Marxist) and the CPI(ML). Of the total 14 Lok Sabha seats the BJP won seven, Congress and AIUDF one three each and independent won one seat in 2014 which helped the saffron party to consolidate its party organisation in Assam, more particularly in the Brahmaputra valley. Raijor Dal, backed by the KMSS has described the Congress-AIUDF combination as “communal grand alliance.”

Photo courtesy : Raijor Dal

In 2016 assembly polls, the AASU and AJYCP played a key role in election of the rainbow alliance of BJP, Asom Gana Parishad, Bodoland People’s Front and other regional forces to capture power and formation of the present Sonowal-led coalition government at Dispur.

Political lines of AJP and Raijor Dal indicate that a part of ruling coalition’s burden of defeating the Congress and the AIUDF in the assembly polls will be shared by these two regional parties. It has also shattered the political dream of Congress-AIUDF of a grand alliance of all anti-BJP parties.

In his reaction to formation of the new regional parties Assam Health and Education Minister and senior BJP leader Himanta Biswa Sarma urged all regional parties to unite to form a single regional party. Sarma’s statement striking similarity with the KMSS mounting pressure on the AASU-AJYCP and AJP for united regional party will leave room for speculations in the political circle and is a calculated one aimed at pushing the narrative of the pitfalls of disunity among regional forces among electors. The KMSS too has been pushing the narrative that the BJP will be invincible if the regional parties fail to unite under a single flag and symbol.

The latest political developments evolving with the formation new regional parties presents a plethora of possibilities. The ruling coalition may have to face three distinct political forces – Congress-led alliance, AJP-backed by the AASU-AJYCP combine and Raijor Dal backed by the KMSS and their allied organisations. Raijor Dal headed by its jailed leader Akhil Gogoi as the Chief Convenor, has made electoral alliance with the left parties conditional. It has stated that party would appeal the Left parties to join a united platform of democratic regional parties if they do not enter into an electoral alliance with the Congress-AIUDF combination.

The Left parties, on the other hand, have been appealing for a united opposition against the BJP-led coalition. The Congress too has been appealing for grand alliance of all parties including the left parties and the new regional parties. This has created the space for the left parties to explore a tie up or understanding with the Congress to avoid split of the anti-BJP votes. However, the left parties might be looking for more clarity in the Congress proposal if the grand alliance would be based on a common minimum agenda or a progamme or mere seat sharing.

Photo courtesy : Assam Jaitya Parishad

Neither the AJP nor the Raijor Dal can match organisational capacities or electoral experience of the two major political players in the state- ruling BJP and the opposition Congress. For the ordinary voters, too many regional parties have made the state political situation murkier. It is too early to rush to a conclusion if the state will witness a resurgence of regionalism in electoral politics in 2021. However, the ruling coalition as well as the Congress cannot ignore the organisational strength and influence of the AASU-AJYCP and KMSS in certain pockets. The BJP’s meteoric rise from just five seats in 2011 to 60 seats in 2016 showed that electoral politics is a game of possibilities.

The movement against the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 which is the driving force behind formation of the new regional parties in its peak had isolated the ruling coalition. The anti-CAA movement losing its steam due to pandemic situation and movement supporters getting divided in different camps of old and new parties, the ruling coalition has got back the much needed space to try wooing the electorates with sops and host of news schemes.

The Congress expecting the support for anti-CAA movement to convert into a grand alliance is a misreading of the political realities. Even though the cause was the same, movement against the CAA was divided in different camps and therefore, formation of different regional parties and articulating different political lines by movement groups is not surprising.

The AGP, despite declining electoral support and inner party rivalry, still has organisational bases to reckon with. The BJP has indicated ending electoral tie-up with the coalition partner BPF and could be more interested in forging alliance with the United People’s Party, Liberal in Bodoland Territorial Region. The BJP dumping AGP and opening the door to a new regional force in post poll scenario if the new force replaces the AGP as the major alternative regional player cannot be ruled out. Formulae of alliance arithmetic and chemistry in politics often baffle even the scientific community.

Sushanta Talukdar